Bitcoin DCA start date heatmap
Every cell below is the same plan: $100 on the first of every month, no fees, starting in January of the row's year and running for the column's number of years. The number is the annualized return over that window, meaning the yearly rate of growth that gets you from what went in to what came out. It is measured at the Bitcoin price on the day the window ended, not today's price. The exact method is XIRR, which accounts for the money going in a bit at a time instead of all on day one.
Read down a column and you see how much your start date mattered. Completed 1-year windows landed anywhere from -73.2% to +4,278% a year. Completed 10-year windows sat between +62.2% and +176%. The longer you held, the less your starting point decided the outcome.
Annualized return by start year and holding period
| Started | 1 yr | 2 yrs | 3 yrs | 5 yrs | 7 yrs | 10 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | +690% | +307% | +1,023% | +240% | +298% | +176% |
| 2012 | +223% | +1,656% | +319% | +179% | +148% | +143% |
| 2013 | +4,278% | +165% | +100% | +233% | +101% | +73% |
| 2014 | -58.4% | +24.9% | +71.7% | +81.5% | +111% | +70.1% |
| 2015 | +143% | +142% | +405% | +101% | +119% | +80.7% |
| 2016 | +197% | +696% | +94.7% | +133% | +55.4% | +62.2% |
| 2017 | +1,857% | +24.5% | +50% | +99.4% | +53.6% | In progress |
| 2018 | -73.2% | +9% | +114% | +17.7% | +56% | In progress |
| 2019 | +40% | +208% | +131% | +49.3% | +45.8% | In progress |
| 2020 | +493% | +150% | -6.7% | +59.6% | In progress | In progress |
| 2021 | +18.2% | -52.3% | +25.5% | +32.4% | In progress | In progress |
| 2022 | -60% | +57.5% | +82.3% | In progress | In progress | In progress |
| 2023 | +137% | +121% | +45.8% | In progress | In progress | In progress |
| 2024 | +116% | +16.4% | In progress | In progress | In progress | In progress |
| 2025 | -19.7% | In progress | In progress | In progress | In progress | In progress |
Legend: annualized return
- 200%+ a year
- 100% to 200%
- 50% to 100%
- 20% to 50%
- 0% to 20%
- Negative
- Window not finished yet
Color is only a shortcut. Every completed cell prints its own number, so the grid reads the same with the colors ignored.
Every completed window in dollars: invested, end value and total return
| Window | Invested | Buys | End value | Total return | Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011–2012 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $4,374 | +264% | +690% |
| 2011–2013 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $14,188 | +491% | +307% |
| 2011–2014 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $780,675 | +21,585% | +1,023% |
| 2011–2016 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $467,681 | +7,695% | +240% |
| 2011–2018 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $14,510,203 | +172,641% | +298% |
| 2011–2021 · 10 yrs | $12,000 | 120 | $31,675,049 | +263,859% | +176% |
| 2012–2013 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $2,404 | +100% | +223% |
| 2012–2014 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $145,462 | +5,961% | +1,656% |
| 2012–2015 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $64,552 | +1,693% | +319% |
| 2012–2017 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $206,550 | +3,342% | +179% |
| 2012–2019 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $798,932 | +9,411% | +148% |
| 2012–2022 · 10 yrs | $12,000 | 120 | $9,984,046 | +83,100% | +143% |
| 2013–2014 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $15,900 | +1,225% | +4,278% |
| 2013–2015 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $7,741 | +223% | +165% |
| 2013–2016 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $12,515 | +248% | +100% |
| 2013–2018 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $426,647 | +7,011% | +233% |
| 2013–2020 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $229,699 | +2,635% | +101% |
| 2013–2023 · 10 yrs | $12,000 | 120 | $535,090 | +4,359% | +73% |
| 2014–2015 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $769.30 | -35.9% | -58.4% |
| 2014–2016 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $3,052 | +27.1% | +24.9% |
| 2014–2017 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $9,233 | +156% | +71.7% |
| 2014–2019 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $38,617 | +544% | +81.5% |
| 2014–2021 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $306,393 | +3,548% | +111% |
| 2014–2024 · 10 yrs | $12,000 | 120 | $465,855 | +3,782% | +70.1% |
| 2015–2016 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $2,007 | +67.3% | +143% |
| 2015–2017 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $6,853 | +186% | +142% |
| 2015–2018 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $101,527 | +2,720% | +405% |
| 2015–2020 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $56,663 | +844% | +101% |
| 2015–2022 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $384,147 | +4,473% | +119% |
| 2015–2025 · 10 yrs | $12,000 | 120 | $769,957 | +6,316% | +80.7% |
| 2016–2017 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $2,278 | +89.8% | +197% |
| 2016–2018 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $39,417 | +1,542% | +696% |
| 2016–2019 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $11,818 | +228% | +94.7% |
| 2016–2021 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $100,375 | +1,573% | +133% |
| 2016–2023 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $57,902 | +589% | +55.4% |
| 2016–2026 · 10 yrs | $12,000 | 120 | $316,104 | +2,534% | +62.2% |
| 2017–2018 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $8,493 | +608% | +1,857% |
| 2017–2019 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $3,040 | +26.7% | +24.5% |
| 2017–2020 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $7,149 | +98.6% | +50% |
| 2017–2022 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $54,708 | +812% | +99.4% |
| 2017–2024 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $54,671 | +551% | +53.6% |
| 2018–2019 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $629.84 | -47.5% | -73.2% |
| 2018–2020 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $2,629 | +9.5% | +9% |
| 2018–2021 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $14,369 | +299% | +114% |
| 2018–2023 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $9,328 | +55.5% | +17.7% |
| 2018–2025 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $59,093 | +603% | +56% |
| 2019–2020 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $1,448 | +20.6% | +40% |
| 2019–2021 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $9,527 | +297% | +208% |
| 2019–2022 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $16,777 | +366% | +131% |
| 2019–2024 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $19,532 | +226% | +49.3% |
| 2019–2026 · 7 yrs | $8,400 | 84 | $42,018 | +400% | +45.8% |
| 2020–2021 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $3,592 | +199% | +493% |
| 2020–2022 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $7,145 | +198% | +150% |
| 2020–2023 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $3,242 | -10% | -6.7% |
| 2020–2025 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $24,511 | +309% | +59.6% |
| 2021–2022 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $1,315 | +9.6% | +18.2% |
| 2021–2023 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $1,213 | -49.5% | -52.3% |
| 2021–2024 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $5,208 | +44.7% | +25.5% |
| 2021–2026 · 5 yrs | $6,000 | 60 | $13,274 | +121% | +32.4% |
| 2022–2023 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $755.02 | -37.1% | -60% |
| 2022–2024 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $3,989 | +66.2% | +57.5% |
| 2022–2025 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $10,382 | +188% | +82.3% |
| 2023–2024 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $1,979 | +64.9% | +137% |
| 2023–2025 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $6,092 | +154% | +121% |
| 2023–2026 · 3 yrs | $3,600 | 36 | $6,795 | +88.8% | +45.8% |
| 2024–2025 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $1,868 | +55.7% | +116% |
| 2024–2026 · 2 yrs | $2,400 | 24 | $2,824 | +17.7% | +16.4% |
| 2025–2026 · 1 yr | $1,200 | 12 | $1,067 | -11.1% | -19.7% |
How much did the start date matter?
This is the same data read column by column. "Spread" is the gap between the best and worst completed window of that length. It measures directly how much of the outcome was decided by when you happened to start.
| Hold length | Completed windows | Worst | Best | Spread | Ended below zero |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 15 | -73.2% | +4,278% | 4,351% | 4 of 15 |
| 2 years | 14 | -52.3% | +1,656% | 1,709% | 1 of 14 |
| 3 years | 13 | -6.7% | +1,023% | 1,030% | 1 of 13 |
| 5 years | 11 | +17.7% | +240% | 222% | 0 of 11 |
| 7 years | 9 | +45.8% | +298% | 252% | 0 of 9 |
| 10 years | 6 | +62.2% | +176% | 114% | 0 of 6 |
Sample sizes shrink as the hold length grows: there are simply fewer completed 10-year windows than 1-year ones, and the long windows overlap heavily with each other. Treat the right-hand rows as illustrative, not statistical.
What the grid actually shows
Short windows were a coin toss on timing. One-year windows hold the widest range of outcomes in the whole grid, and they are the only column with a meaningful count of negative results. A year is short enough that one leg of the cycle decides it. Start into a run-up and the number is spectacular. Start into a drawdown, meaning a long slide down from the last peak, and it is deeply red. Nothing about the plan changed between those two cases. Only the calendar did.
The range narrows the longer you hold. Move right across any row and the numbers converge. Each extra year adds purchases at prices the earlier buys never saw, so no single entry point keeps its grip on your average cost. That convergence is the real content of this page, not the size of any one number. It is also the strongest available argument for settling on a long horizon before you start, instead of trying to pick a moment.
Annualized returns fall as you go down the grid. The earliest rows cover a period when Bitcoin was tiny, hard to trade, and largely unknown. Those percentages describe a starting point that no longer exists. Reading the top-left of the grid as a baseline expectation would be a mistake. The later rows are the more relevant comparison, and even they are history, not a forecast.
Every window here ended in the past. A cell fills in only once its full holding period has run out, and it is valued at the price on that end date. That matters more than it sounds. Valuing a completed 2013–2016 window at today's price would quietly credit a three-year hold with everything that happened in the decade afterwards. Every historical window would look like a success. Cells whose window is still running say "in progress" instead.
One thing this grid cannot tell you is what any future window will do. It covers a single asset over a single fifteen-year stretch. The long windows overlap each other heavily, and the conditions that produced these numbers were unusual by construction. It describes what happened. It does not predict.
How each cell is calculated
- •$100 buys on the 1st of each month, on UTC calendar days, for the full window: 12 purchases per year of hold.
- •The stack is valued at the Bitcoin price on the window's end date, never at today's price.
- •The percentage is XIRR: the yearly rate at which every dated purchase plus the closing value nets to zero. It is not the total return divided by the number of years, because the money went in gradually.
- •No fees, no taxes, and no spread (the gap between what an exchange sells at and what it buys at) are modeled. Real returns would be lower. This grid uses real daily closing prices: Coinbase from 2015, blockchain.info before that. It does not use the weekly series the calculator fills in by default. The methodology page covers the price sources and their limits.
- •The grid recomputes daily against fresh price data, so a window completes and fills in on its own anniversary.
Run your own numbers
This grid fixes the amount at $100 a month and the cadence at monthly. Change the amount, the cadence, the fee and both dates in the live calculator and it backtests against the same historical price data.
Open the calculatorCommon questions
Does the start date matter for Bitcoin DCA?
Enormously over short windows, much less over long ones. Across the completed 1-year windows in this grid, annualized returns ranged from -73.2% to +4,278% per year, a spread of about 4,351%. Across the completed 10-year windows the range narrows to +62.2% to +176%, a spread of about 114%. This is a description of what happened, not a forecast.
How is the annualized return in each cell calculated?
Each cell simulates $100 bought on the first of every month for the whole window. The resulting Bitcoin is then valued at the market price on the window's end date. The annualized figure is XIRR: the yearly rate at which every dated purchase, plus the closing value, nets out to zero. It exists because the money went in gradually rather than all on day one, which a plain "total return divided by years" would get wrong. Historical windows are never valued at today's price.
Why do some cells say "in progress"?
A cell is only filled in once its full holding period has elapsed. A 10-year window that started in 2020 has not finished, so showing a partial figure next to completed 10-year windows would be misleading. Those cells are marked in progress instead.
Do these historical returns predict future Bitcoin returns?
No. This grid records what one mechanical schedule produced over one stretch of the past. Across that stretch Bitcoin went from a hobbyist experiment to a widely traded asset. Nothing here should be projected forward. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and you can lose money.
Keep reading
Not financial advice. This is a historical simulation for educational purposes; past performance does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin is volatile and you can lose money.